I made some waffles and a small Santa hat for my pet rock.
I recently watched this video made by Ben Felix.
In the video he argues that based on the historical data it is a bad idea to invest into exciting new technologies, and the companies that create them. Historically investors have overestimated the future growth of new innovative firms and underestimated how long it would take for dying industries to become irrelevant.
From 1900 through 2019, rail companies declined from a 63% share of the US stock market to a less than 1% share. It is the ultimate example of a declining industry. Over that time period, rail stocks beat the US market, road transportation stocks, and air transportation stocks.Ben Felix, 2020
To illustrate the point, Ben uses the example of the declining rail industry. Despite going from a 63% to 1% share of the stock market capitalization between 1900 and 2019, it still managed to outperform innovative new transportation technologies like cars and airplanes during the same time period.
Investors had overestimated how quickly the railway companies would become obsolete leading them to value those stocks too low. Similarly, they overestimated how well car and airplane companies would do causing those stocks to become overvalued and have lower returns.
The moral of the story is that great companies are not necessarily great investments if you pay too much for them, and when new technologies come out investors get excited and do just that. Additionally, bad companies could be good investments if you can get them cheap enough.
Since the approximate start of the age of information in 1971, the software industry has grown more than any other, from basically non-existent in 1971, to the largest industry by market capitalization at the end of 2019 at nearly 15% of the US stock market. The oil industry on the other hand has seen a massive decline in market capitalization, from nearly 15% of the US market in 1971, to about 3% at the end of 2019. Over this period, a dollar invested in the oil index grew to $134, while a dollar invested in the software index grew to $76.Ben Felix, 2020
A second example is that you would have made more money holding oil stocks instead of technology stocks over the time period between 1971 and 2019. Most likely investors are overestimating how quickly renewable energy will make oil obsolete leading to oil stocks being undervalued and having higher returns.
So counterintuitively, it seems like you’re better off investing in cheap dying stocks over expensive growth stocks. In other words, values stocks (those with low multiples) outperform growth stocks (those with high multiples). This is a well known phenomenon called the value premium and is the basis for value investing.
So earlier today I was trying out Microsoft’s online office suite and noticed something interesting. Whenever you create a new Word, Excel, or PowerPoint file from the OneDrive interface, it automatically creates it using the OpenDocument file format (odt, ods, odp) as opposed to the Microsoft Office format (docx, xlsx, ppt). Interestingly if you create it from Office.com it uses the Microsoft format instead.
I really love podcasts. Not only do they provide great entertainment value as an alternative to audiobooks, but they are also one of the last open ecosystems on the web. Anyone can start a podcast by publishing an RSS feed on their website without having to rely on a central platform (thus nobody can “ban” your podcast). Once published listeners can consume their favorite podcasts from any RSS reader, including many specially made for podcasts like PocketCasts and Overcast.
This arrangement is beneficial to creators because it gives them full freedom of expression without having to worry about the censors on platforms like YouTube, and it gives them complete freedom of choice on how to monetize their work. It is equally beneficial to consumers who get to choose among hundreds of independently developed podcast apps to find the one with the best features for them. If a consumer wants to switch podcast players they can also do so while taking their subscriptions with them.
However, over the last few years Spotify has been making moves that could threaten this open ecosystem.
In 2015, Spotify started embracing podcasts by enabling users to discover and subscribe shows right in the Spotify app. The feature works just like any other podcast client and scrapes RSS feeds found on the web.
Later in 2019, Spotify acquired the podcast networks Gimlet Media, Anchor FM, and Parcast. However, they did not limit access to podcasts produced on those networks so users could still listen using their client of choice.
In May 2020, Spotify announced that it acquired an exclusive license to The Joe Rogan Experience (a popular comedy podcast) for $100 million dollars. Starting in September 2020, Joe’s podcast will be removed from all 3rd party podcasting apps and made available only in Spotify’s own podcasts section.
If the Joe Rogan license is a commercial success then it seems likely that the shows from the other podcast networks that Spotify owns will also be made exclusive to their own apps.
If Spotify chooses to continue on their current path of exclusive content it will break interoperability with other podcast apps and force listeners of those shows to use the Spotify podcast client. I suspect that many listeners will also transfer their existing subscriptions into Spotify to avoid needing two separate podcast clients.
If Spotify gains enough market share then it will effectively become the de facto gatekeeper of podcasts (similar to how Google Play is the de facto gatekeeper of Android apps despite side loading and alternative app stores). Once that happens many of the benefits of podcasts will be destroyed. Creators will no longer have full creative freedom as they risk annoying the Spotify censors and having a large portion of their audience taken away from them. Consumers will no longer have choice in podcast clients if they want to listen to shows that are exclusive to Spotify.
I really hope that Spotify’s attempt to centralize the podcasting ecosystem around their apps is a colossal failure, however, the Embrace, Extend, and Extinguish strategy is quite effective and thus I fear they may succeed.
As a small and feeble attempt to protest this direction that Spotify is moving I have decided to cancel my Spotify Premium subscription.
exFAT is great because similar to its predecessor FAT it has read-write compatibility with Linux, Windows, and macOS. But while FAT can only have files as big as 4 GB and partitions of 16 TB, exFAT can do 16 EB for files and 64 ZB for partitions. Lots more room to grow.
It’ll be a slow process since I can only format one drive at a time and need to copy the data to another drive and back again. So far I’ve converted 4 TB of data.
So my university has shutdown the campus for the remainder of the semester due to Coronavirus concerns and asked all students to attend classes remotely (mainly using Zoom for live-streaming lectures). I went looking for an open source cross platform video conferencing solution with a fast onboarding process to keep in touch with fellow students and found Jitsi to fit the bill.
It’s free, it’s FOSS, and there are no accounts required to create a chat session on their website. You just need to enter a name for your room, and they give you a link to share for people to join.
The only officially supported web browser is Google Chrome which kinda sucks. But it seems to work okay in Firefox except I couldn’t get it to detect any of my microphones (your usage may vary). Instead, I’m using it in Falkon and it works flawlessly.
Unfortunately, it also doesn’t appear that video chats are end-to-end encrypted which means whoever runs the server can see the raw footage (but you can self-host).
Overall it’s good enough and it looks like the public service is hosted by 8×8, which is a public VoIP company, so I’m not overly concerned about eavesdropping (due to the lack of end-to-end encryption). I’ll keep an eye out for better options but for now I’m sticking with Jitsi.
Here is a summary of some of the default apps:
- Buho – the default note taking app. Notes can be tagged by color, keyword, and organized into “books”. It can also save URLs.
- Discover – the same KDE software center available on the desktop.
- Index – the file manager which draws inspiration from Dolphin.
- KDE Connect – sync your Plasma Mobile phone with your Plasma Desktop.
- Koko – the photo gallery and viewer. Has some issues with thumbnails.
- Konsole – the same KDE terminal emulator available on the desktop.
- Okular – the PDF reader for Plasma Mobile. It’s a different application from Okular for Plasma Desktop.
- Phone Book – stores your contacts phone numbers, emails, etc.
- Settings – settings app for Plasma Mobile which is currently missing some categories (ex: battery).
- Wave – the default music player which don’t have any sound right now.
- Phone – the dialer app for calling numbers and contacts.
- Angelfish – the default web browser which has support for tabs, history, bookmarks, etc.
- Calindori – the default calendar app but I couldn’t figure out how to add events.
I was recently wondering which of the popular web search engines provided the best results and decided to try to design an objective benchmark for evaluating them. My hypothesis was that Google would score the best followed by StartPage (Google aggregator) and then Bing and it’s aggregators.
Usually when evaluating search engine performance there are two methods I’ve seen used:
- Have humans search for things and rate the results
- Create a dataset of mappings between queries and “ideal” result URLs
The problem with having humans rate search results is that it is expensive and hard to replicate results. Creating a dataset of “correct” webpages to return for each query solves the repeatability of the experiment problem but is also expensive upfront and depends on the human creating the dataset’s subjective biases.
Instead of using either of those methods I decided to evaluate the search engines on the specific task of answering factual questions from humans asked in natural language. Each engine is scored by how many of its top 10 results contain the correct answer.
Although this approach is not very effective at evaluating the quality of a single query, I believe in aggregate over thousands of queries it should provide a reasonable estimation of how well each engine can answer the users questions.
To source the factoid questions, I use the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) which is a popular natural language dataset containing 100k factual questions and answers from Wikipedia collected by Mechanical Turk workers.
Here are some sample questions from the dataset:
Q: How did the black death make it to the Mediterranean and Europe?
A: merchant ships
Q: What is the largest city of Poland?
Q: In 1755 what fort did British capture?
A: Fort Beauséjour
Some of the questions in the dataset are also rather ambiguous such as the one below:
Q: What order did British make of French?
A: expulsion of the Acadian
This is because the dataset is designed to train question answering models that have access to the context that contains the answer. In the case of SQaUD each Q/A pair comes with the paragraph from Wikipedia that contains the answer.
However, I don’t believe this is a huge problem since most likely all search engines will perform poorly on those types of questions and no individual one will be put at a disadvantage.
To get the results from each search engine, I wrote a Python script that connects to Firefox via Selenium and performs searches just like regular users via the browser.
The first 10 results are extracted using CSS rules specific to each search engine and then those links are downloaded using the requests library. To check if a particular result is a “match” or not we simply perform an exact match search of the page source code for the correct answer (both normalized to lowercase).
Again this is not a perfect way of determining whether any single page really answers a query, but in aggregate it should provide a good estimate.
Some search engines are harder to scrape due to rate limiting. The most aggressive rate limiters were: Qwant, Yandex, and Gigablast. They often blocked me after just two queries (on a new IP) and thus there are fewer results available for those engines. Also, Cliqz, Lycos, Yahoo!, and YaCy were all added mid experiment, so they have fewer results too.
I scraped results for about 2 weeks and collected about 3k queries for most engines. Below is a graph of the number of queries that were scraped from each search engine.
Crunching the numbers
Now that the data is collected there are lots of ways to analyze it. For each query we have the number of matching documents, and for the latter half of queries also the list of result links saved.
The first thing I decided to do was see which search engine had the highest average number of matching documents.
Much to my surprise Google actually came in second to Ecosia. I was rather shocked with this since Ecosia’s gimmick is that they plant trees with the money from ads, not having Google beating search results.
Also surprising is the number of Bing aggregators (Ecosia, DuckDuckGo, Yahoo!) that all came in ahead of Bing itself. One reason may be that those engines each apply their own ranking on top of the results returned by Bing and some claim to also search other sources.
Below is a chart with the exact scores of each search engine.
To further understand why the Bing aggregators performed so well I wanted to check how much of their own ranking was being used. I computed the average Levenshtein distance between each two search engines, which is the minimum number of single result edits (insertions, deletions or substitutions) required to change one results page into the other.
Of the three, Ecosia was the most different from pure Bing with an average edit distance of 8. DuckDuckGo was the second most different with edit distance of 7, followed by Yahoo! with a distance of 5.
Interestingly the edit distances of Ecosia, DuckDuckGo, and Yahoo! seem to correlate well with their overall rankings where Ecosia came in 1st, DuckDuckGo 3rd, and Yahoo! 5th. This would indicate that whatever modifications these engines have made to the default Bing ranking do indeed improve search result quality.
This was a pretty fun little experiment to do, and I am happy to see some different results from what I expected. I am making all the collected data and scripts available for anyone who wants to do their own analysis.
This study does not account for features besides search result quality such as instant answers, bangs, privacy, etc. and thus it doesn’t really show which search engine is “best” just which one provides the best results for factoid questions.
I plan to continue using DuckDuckGo as my primary search engine despite it coming in 3rd place. The results of the top 6 search engines are all pretty close, so I would expect the experience across them to be similar.
So I was recently asked why I prefer to use free and open source software over more conventional and popular proprietary software and services.
A few years ago I was an avid Google user. I was deeply embedded in the Google ecosystem and used their products everywhere. I used Gmail for email, Google Calendar and Contacts for PIM, YouTube for entertainment, Google Newsstand for news, Android for mobile, and Chrome as my web browser.
I would upload all of my family photos to Google Photos and all of my personal documents to Google Drive (which were all in Google Docs format). I used Google Domains to register my domain names for websites where I would keep track of my users using Google Analytics and monetize them using Google AdSense.
I used Google Hangouts (one of Google’s previous messaging plays) to communicate with friends and family and Google Wallet (with debit card) to buy things online and in-store.
My home is covered with Google Homes (1 in my office, 1 in my bedroom, 1 in the main living area) which I would use to play music on my Google Play Music subscription and podcasts from Google Podcasts.
I have easily invested thousands of dollars into my Google account to buy movies, TV shows, apps, and Google hardware devices. This was truly the Google life.
Then one day, I received an email from Google that changed everything.
“Your account has been suspended”
I nearly had a heart attack, until I saw that the Google account that had been suspended was in fact not my main personal Google account, but a throwaway Gmail account that I created years prior for a project. I hadn’t touched the other account since creation and forgot it existed. Apparently my personal Gmail was listed as the recovery address for the throwaway account and that’s why I received the termination email.
Although I was able to breathe a sigh of relief this time, the email was wake up call. I was forced to critically reevaluate my dependence on a single company for all the tech products and services in my life.
I found myself to be a frog in a heating pot of water and I made the decision that I was going to jump out.
The first Google service I decided to drop was Gmail, the heart of my online identity. I migrated to Fastmail with my own domain in case I needed to move again (hint: glad I did, now I self host my email). Fastmail also provided calendar and contacts solutions so that took care of leaving Google Calendar and Contacts.
Here are some other alternatives that I moved to:
- Gmail → Fastmail → Self-hosted (via Cloudron)
- Google Contacts → Fastmail → Nextcloud Contacts
- Google Calendar → Fastmail → Nextcloud Calendar
- Google Search → Bing → DuckDuckGo
- Google Maps → Bing Maps → OpenStreetMaps and OsmAnd
- Google Analytics → Matomo Analytics
- Google Drive → Nextcloud Files
- Google Photos → Nextcloud Files/Gallery
- Google Docs → Collabora Office (Nextcloud integration) and LibreOffice
- Google Play Music → Spotify / Plex → Spotify / Jellyfin
- Google Play Movies/TV → Plex → Jellyfin
- Google Play Audiobooks/Books → Audible/Kindle
- Google Play Store (apps) → F-Droid / Aurora Store
- Google Android → Lineage OS → Ubuntu Touch on PinePhone (coming soon?)
- Google’s Android Apps → Simple Mobile Tools
- Google Chrome → Mozilla Firefox
- Google Domains → Hover
- Google Hangouts → Matrix and Nextcloud Talk
- Google Allo → Signal
- Google Podcasts → PocketCasts → AntennaPod
- Google Newsstand → RSS
- Google Wallet → PayPal and Cash App
- Google Voice →Ting Mobile
Migrating away from Google was not a fast or easy process. It took years to get where I am now and there are still several Google services that I depend on: YouTube and Google Home.
Eventually, my Google Home’s will grow old and become unsupported at which point hopefully the Mycroft devices have matured and become available for purchase. YouTube may never be replaced (although I do hope for projects like PeerTube to succeed) but I find the compromise of using only one or two Google services to be acceptable.
At this point losing my Google account due to a mistake in their machine learning would largely be inconsequential and my focus has shifted to leaving Amazon which I use for most of my shopping and cloud services.
The reason that I moved to mostly FOSS applications is that it seems to be the only software ecosystem where everything works seamlessly together and I don’t have to cede control to any single company. Alternatively I could have simply split my service usage up evenly across Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple but I don’t feel that they would have worked as nicely together.
Overall I’m very happy with the open source ecosystem. I use Ubuntu with KDE on all of my computers and Android (no GApps) on my mobile phone. I’ve ordered the PinePhone “Brave Heart” and hope to one day be able to use it or one of its successors as a daily driver with Ubuntu Touch or Plasma Mobile.
If you’ve decided to move to another email provider it’s possible to take all of your old emails and folders with you. The easiest way I’ve found to do this is using the mail client Mozilla Thunderbird.
With Thunderbird installed sign into both your old and new emails accounts. This is provider dependent but in general if you are using a popular email service like Gmail, Yahoo, Outlook, etc. then Thunderbird can auto discover the SMTP endpoints. If you have two-factor authentication setup on your email account you may need to create an app password.
If you are unsure here are the instructions for a few popular services:
When you set up your old account make sure you set Thunderbird to download the entire email history not just the last few months.
Once you are signed in to both accounts you should see all of your emails and folders in the old account. You may want to wait for Thunderbird to finish downloading emails if necessary.
To move emails, simply select the inbox of your old mail account, use Ctrl + A to select all the emails, then drag them to the new inbox. You will also need to drag each of the folders from the old email account to the new one.
If you’d like to just move a couple of emails you can select them individually and drag them to the new email account.