Aug 18th, 2019

There seems to have been lots of talk of an impending stock market crash recently. Some people seem to be absolutely certain of it for reasons such as the inverted yield curve, high PE multiples, and the trade war with China. I've even heard people talk about the "2020 recession" as if it has already happened.

Personally, I'm skeptical. I don't think there is any greater risk of a market downturn today then there was 5 years ago. Everyone knows that the yield curve has inverted and that inversions have historically preceded recessions in the United States. But the expectation of an upcoming recession is already priced into the market.

Similarly, the risks associated with the Chinese trade war have also been priced in.

Now I'm not saying that there won't be a market crash, but I am saying that if there is one the cause will be something that is not currently priced into the market (in other words, something that isn't receiving 24/7 news coverage).